Tue. Jun 6th, 2023

Estimating the destruction of natural disasters is a very difficult process and produces very different results. After the ones in Turkey and Syria, there are some important ways to estimate the damage.

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According to the results of a report published by Turkey’s “Enterprise and Business Confederation”, the cost of earthquake damage in eastern Turkey is 80 billion euros, which is about 10 percent of Turkey’s gross national product.

In addition, damage to Turkish homes is estimated at $70.8 billion. The recent earthquake cost Turkey’s national income $10.4 billion, while the loss of working days equals $2.9 billion.

American “data analytics firm” Verisk has estimated the minimum damages caused by the recent sudden disaster to Turkey at 20 billion dollars. Many other estimates are close to that. It will take a long time to assess the damage caused by the recent earthquake in Turkey’s neighboring country, Syria. Although the earthquake in Syria has caused destruction on the same scale as in Turkey, its damage will be much less than in Turkey.

How to estimate the loss of human lives?

According to Melanie Gall, an expert associated with SHELDUS, a local disaster damage database center at Arizona State University in the US, there are generally two ways to calculate economic losses from such disasters.

Direct effects

These effects are those that occur immediately after an event or disaster occurs, such as damage to homes and injuries. Melanie Gall, an American geologist, told Deutsche Welle that direct losses are actually assessed by insurance companies by their professional assessors.

Indirect effects

These are actually secondary or tertiary effects such as business losses during a shutdown, loss of workers’ income and “post-traumatic stress” (PTSD), a mental condition such as It is reflected in the mental, physical and emotional state of the victims after a traumatic event. Calculation of such losses is usually done using economic models.

According to Melanie Gall, “most losses resulting from such incidents are not assessed by professional estimators.”

Meanwhile, Adam Rose, a senior research fellow at the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis at the University of Southern California in the United States, leads a team of estimators who have created a Developed software called “Economic Consequence Analysis” or Economic Consequence Analysis Tool, E-CAT. This software can be used when some basic information about the initial scale of the disaster and some rough estimates or estimates about the resilience of the people as well as the behavior are available.

How accurate can estimates be?

Adam Rose says initial estimates of losses from natural disasters and catastrophic events are often made within days, but can be better estimated later as more data becomes available. “Early estimates often include damaged infrastructure such as roads, bridges and utilities,” he says.

Rose believes that analysts can also estimate these losses by studying data collected through a process called “Earth observation” and by satellites and spy planes. Will be.

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